Family Veldman
By Ed Avis
Halloween 2021 has a lot of potential for bricks-and-mortar retailers, says Tom Arnold, a professor at the University of Richmond in Virginia who is regarded as an expert on Halloween retail issues. But Arnold cautions that retailers’ success at Halloween might be tempered by COVID, Amazon’s maneuvers, and a lack of big movie releases.
Vaccinations Will Help Halloween
Professor Tom Arnold
Arnold, who will be a panelist at the NCA’s Zoom conversation about Halloween issues on July 13, believes the pent-up urge of Americans to get out and celebrate will help make Halloween big this year. But the effect may be different for adults than for children.
“I think adults will be back celebrating Halloween, because we’ve seen that as the economy and country opens celebrations are happening,” Arnold says. “The question will be about the kids. Will there be a COVID vaccine for children under 12 by then and will parents prioritize getting their kids vaccinated quickly? I think traditional trick or treating might hinge on that vaccine.”
In other words, the greater number of kids who get vaccinated, the greater the number of kids knocking on doors on October 31.
But even adult vaccination rates will play a role, Arnold predicts.
“I would say any areas with high vaccination rates, where people feel safer, are likely to do well. The areas with low vaccination rates might experience COVID spikes by Halloween, especially because they’ll be bringing kids back into school and creating crowded contact. Those areas might pay a price for not vaccinating as well and that will curtail Halloween celebrations.”
Encouraging vaccinations as a way to help Halloween could be part of the NCA’s Help Halloween Happen campaign this year, which Arnold says could be effective.
“’Help Save Halloween, Get Vaccinated’ – I see that appealing to kids,” he notes, adding that local, state or federal governments with COVID prevention funds might be willing to contribute to such an effort.
Décor, Innovation Again Will Help Retailers
Even if COVID doesn’t relent in your community, Halloween sales should be solid, Arnold believes.
Retailers saw good sales of Halloween décor last year, and that could repeat itself in 2021. Regardless of how trick-or-treating plays out, people will still want to express their spirit one way or another, and décor lets them do that.
And costume retailers can look forward to parents and communities getting innovative with trick-or-treating and parties this year, just like they did in 2020.
“Last year we saw a lot of virtual celebrations and parents still buying costumes for their kids, and I think that could easily repeat this year,” Arnold says.
Movies, Amazon Among Other Factors
COVID isn’t the only factor that will affect Halloween sales.
Costume shop owners know that a big movie release can move a lot of product, and unfortunately, there are no giant releases scheduled for this summer. A few movies – such as Space Jam, Cruella, and Suicide Squad – might generate some costume interest, but there is nothing like a new Star Wars or Harry Potter release.
Another factor that could affect costume retailers is the timing of Amazon’s Prime Day. Last year the behemoth retailer moved Prime Day to October, which probably cut into sales at bricks-and-mortar retailers.
“I haven’t heard of Amazon doing such a thing yet, but it would be in the back of my head if I were a retailer,” Arnold says. If Prime Day occurs in October, “you’re going to have to step out in front of them if you intend compete with them, or join them by selling merchandise through them. It’s tough dealing with the big gorilla on the block.”
At the end of the day, the fact that people have been cooped up and are finally starting to socialize again will help Halloween sales, Arnold believes: “I think people are tired being shut in and any possibility of getting to normal will be welcome.”
To hear more from Tom Arnold, please register for July 13 panel discussion, which will be followed by the 2021 NCA Business Meeting. Click here for details. Also, if you'd like to learn about the first Help Halloween Happen campaign from last year, which included a booklet with ideas for safe, no-touch trick-or-treating, click here.